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Pipeline math

How many sales conversations does your agency need each week?

Last updated: Published by Tim Kilroy

Divide your quarterly revenue goal by your average deal size, then by your close rate and proposal rate, then by 13 weeks.

This is the pipeline formula from Tim Kilroy's 2026 planning workshop. Revenue does not come from leads. It comes from a small number of real conversations with people who have a short path to yes or no.

The question

How do I calculate my agency's pipeline targets?

Work backward from revenue. The formula turns a goal into a weekly number you can actually manage, instead of a vague sense that you need more leads.

  1. Revenue goal ÷ average deal size = deals needed

    How many signed deals the quarter requires.
  2. Deals needed ÷ close rate = proposals required

    How many proposals you must send to sign those deals.
  3. Proposals ÷ proposal rate = conversations needed

    How many real sales conversations produce those proposals.
  4. Conversations ÷ 13 weeks = your weekly number

    The target to track every Monday.

Agency pipeline math calculator

New revenue you want to sign this quarter, in dollars.

Average value of a signed deal, in dollars.

Percent of real sales conversations that become a proposal.

Percent of proposals that get signed.

Your estimate

Fill in all four figures and press calculate. Commas, a dollar sign, and a percent sign are fine.

Pipeline math evidence

Worked example

A worked example with round numbers

Say a $150,000 quarterly goal, $25,000 average deal, 30% close rate, and 50% proposal rate. That is 6 deals, 20 proposals, and 40 conversations, or about 3.1 real conversations a week for 13 weeks.

Illustrative figures only, not a benchmark.

What to fix

Pick one constraint per quarter

Tim Kilroy recommends improving one constraint at a time: not enough conversations, conversations not turning into proposals, or proposals not closing. Raising your close rate from 30% to 40% in the example cuts required conversations from 40 to 30.

If nobody works differently on Monday, it wasn't a plan.
Tim Kilroy, 2026 Planning Workshop

Next step

Turning the number into a process

A weekly number only helps if every conversation is a real one. Use the stage rules in the agency sales process guide so a “conversation” means a qualified prospect, not a friendly chat. Then see how agency consulting with Tim Kilroy helps founders hit that number without doing every call themselves.

FAQ

Pipeline questions

How do I find where my agency sales funnel leaks?
Run a leak test. Pull the last 90 days, count how many prospects entered each of the five stages, and calculate the conversion from each stage to the next. The stage with the worst conversion is your leak. Tim Kilroy estimates it takes about twenty minutes and a spreadsheet, and says it is the highest return twenty minutes most agency owners have. In the full FAQ
How do you qualify a prospect?
A prospect is qualified when you have both agreed out loud that there is a real problem, that solving it is worth money, and that this person is the one who decides. Tim Kilroy’s test is simple: you should be able to name the problem in the prospect’s own words. If you cannot, they are still only interested, not qualified. In the full FAQ
How do I know when my agency should hire?
Tim Kilroy uses three triggers: the constraint has existed 60 or more days and cannot be solved with current resources, it directly blocks revenue, margin, or focus, and removing it generates enough margin to fund the role within six months. Define the function, such as 15 hours a week lost to coordination, before you define the job title. In the full FAQ
What is a standard sales process?
Most standard sales processes move from awareness to interest to qualification to proposal to close. What separates a working process from a diagram is the entry rule for each stage. In Tim Kilroy’s version, a prospect only counts when they did something observable, such as opening the proposal, not when you did something, such as sending it. In the full FAQ
Why is my agency stuck at a revenue plateau?
Often because the founder is maxed out. Tim Kilroy calls it the owner operator trap: the business cannot grow because the founder cannot take on more, and the founder cannot get free because the business is not adding resources. His three keys out are a defined ideal client, scalable lead generation, and the right offer for that client. In the full FAQ

Read all 49 questions and answers in the agency consulting FAQ